#12 A CONUNDRUM ?

http://www.tenurecorrupts.com/strategies

Conundrum, def:
a : a question or problem having only a conjectural answer
b : an intricate and difficult problem

We have a conundrum here.

One day while working on the website, it occurred to me that my preferred
‘basic strategy’ may be essentially counterproductive. Do I have a conundrum
on my hands ?

The strategy I am talking about is the one where I suggest that we adopt
an amendment which is worded so as to exempt current incumbents
from being term limited, as long as they continue to be successfully
reelected. The theory here is that such an amendment would be easier
to pass Congress, since it does not affect current members.

I suddenly woke up to the fact that, if the current reelection rate of 99%
continues indefinitely, then it will take a mighty long time for term limits
to have any significant effect on the Congress.

For example, using very rough arithmetic: Congress has 535 members,
and is currently at a 99% reelection rate . So, if we were able to change
only 1%, or 5 or 6 members every 2 years, it would take approximately
50 elections, or 100 years, to change only one-half of the membership
to be term limited !!

On the other hand, if the reelection rate was only 95%, thereby changing
5%, or 27 seats every 2 years, it would take only 10 years to get one-half
of Congress to be term limited, which, of course, is much more reasonable.

Obviously, my strategy to use the incumbency exemption was valid a few
years ago, when the reelection rate was less than 95%. Is it still valid ?
Only time will tell.

If the 99% rate in the 2004 election was an anomaly, and it returns to a
more acceptable 95% level, I would still be inclined to stick with the
‘exemption amendment’, because I believe it improves our chances of
getting the amendment thru two-thirds of each house of Congress.

If, on the other hand, the reelection rate appears to be ‘stuck’ at the 99%
level, it serves to confirm the real necessity for Congressional Term Limits,
and only emphasizes how difficult the job is going to be. It shows that
a significant fraction of the electorate is too lazy or indifferent to realize
that a Congress ‘elected for life’ is not a healthy situation. Commonsense
tells us all that ‘tenure corrupts’ ! Even ‘good’ politicians become tainted
after serving too long in the same office, even if the taint is ‘only’ arrogance.

I'm Nelson Lee Walker, and I believe our country needs Congressional Term Limits.

http://www.tenurecorrupts.com/strategies